CharlesVermeulen.com - Weblog Charles Vermeulen

On Africa's Growing Geopolitical Importance · 16 June 2007, 14:18 CET by Charles Vermeulen

"In 2005, the US imported more oil from the Gulf of Guinea than it did from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait combined. Within the next ten years it will import more oil from Africa than from the entire Middle East." (Christopher Thompson, ‘The Scramble for Africa’s Oil’, New Statesman, 18 June 2007, 24-26)

Instability in the Middle East which threatens to spill over to Africa, ‘resource nationalism’ in Russia and South America, the growing importance of Africa’s west coast oil fields to Europe and the U.S. and China’s rising presence in the region – all compell the U.S. to form a new Africa strategy in which oil and counter-terrorism will be the key components and which will culminate in the establishment of Africom, a unified military command for Africa that must be operational before mid-2008. Read more about it in Christopher Thompson’s ‘The Scramble for Africa’s Oil’, a report in the New Statesman.

africa, africa strategy, africom, china, europe, oil, resource nationalism, russia, united states

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Global Demand For Oil Will Grow Less Fast · 30 November 2006, 07:53 CET by Charles Vermeulen

Yesterday’s edition of Dutch daily NRC Handelsblad discussed an interesting report by the McKinsey Global Institute (page 17). According to the report the global demand for oil will grow less fast than was estimated by, among others, the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA believes that 92 million barrels of oil per day will be used in 2010, which is 7 million barrels more than now. According to McKinsey daily use will be 87 million barrels per day as a result of increased efficiency of the refinement process, which will require far less crude oil for the production of a litre of gasoline or diesel. Increased efficiency will account for 4 million barrels per day. McKinsey furthermore believes that car usage will decrease consequent on high oil prices and the use of biofuel will grow faster than estimated, both resulting in a global demand for oil which will increase less fast than was expected.

biofuel, crude oil, iea, international energy agency, mckinsey, oil, refinement

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'The End of the First Half of the Age of Oil' · 12 November 2006, 18:44 CET by Charles Vermeulen

"I think that the governments have been really seriously misled by what I call the malign influence of economists because under the mentality and mindset and experience of economists they simply say well supply must always meets demand in an open market. (...) The European Union, for example, facing supply issues, its reaction is: liberalize the market. They don’t realize the supreme irony that the more efficient you are in producing the stuff the quicker it’s gone."

Last week Monkeyfister posted the must see presentation ‘The End of the First Half of the Age of Oil’, which oil geologist Dr. Colin Campbell held during a conference in Kinsale, Ireland in the summer of 2005. It’s really worthwhile watching, so please take the trouble to check out the posting.

age of oil, campbell, colin campbell, monkeyfister, oil

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The Invasion of Iraq Was About Oil, Bush Admits · 7 November 2006, 06:38 CET by Charles Vermeulen

"If the United States pulled its troops out [of Iraq] prematurely and surrendered the country to insurgents, [Bush] warns audiences, it would effectively hand over Iraq’s considerable petroleum reserves to terrorists who would use it as a weapon against other countries." (Peter Baker, The Washington Post, ‘Bush Says U.S. Pullout Would Let Iraq Radicals Use Oil as a Weapon’ (November 5, 2006)

During the run-up to the war in Iraq the Bush administration denied it ‘sternly’, but according to Washington Post Staff Writer Peter Baker president Bush admits it publicly now: the invasion of Iraq was about oil. Or at least partly.

bush, iraq, oil, president bush, united states, washington post

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Western Sanctions and Hot Khartoum · 24 October 2006, 11:16 CET by Charles Vermeulen

"Despite the image of Sudan as a land of cracked earth and starving people, the economy is booming, with little help from the West. Oil has turned Sudan’s economy into one of the fastest growing in Africa – if not the world – emboldening the nation’s already belligerent government and giving it the wherewithal to resist Western demands to end the conflict in Darfur."

As the U.S. tries to harness Khartoum by Executive Order 13067 (‘Blocking Sudanese Government Property and Prohibiting Transactions With Sudan’) ‘companies from China, Malaysia, India, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are racing in’, Jeffrey Gettleman reports in ‘Far away from Darfur’s agony, Khartoum is booming’, an article in yesterday’s edition of the International Herald Tribune.

china, darfur, executive order 13067, india, khartoum, oil, sanctions, sudan, west

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China's Dependence on Iran's Energy · 6 March 2006, 22:50 CET by Charles Vermeulen

A few days ago the China Economic Review published a short news item entitled ‘Iran becomes top oil source’ (2 March 2006) according to which Iran has passed Saudi Arabia as China’s main oil source. If the International Atomic Energy Agency indeed decides to send the issue of Iran’s nuclear program to the U.N. Security Council Beijing’s stance will be crucial. In his article in the International Herald Tribune entitled ‘What will China do?’ (24 January 2006) Ian Bremmer deals with the subject, taking into account China’s growing dependence on Iran’s energy.

(The CER’s source is a report in the South China Morning Post. A subscription to the SCMP is required in order to gain access to the report.)

china, energy, international atomic energy agency, iran, oil, saudi arabia

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Government Undertakings, Oil and World Power · 19 February 2005, 14:32 CET by Charles Vermeulen

"When Sinopec agreed to spend $ 300 million to develop natural gas resources in Saudi Arabia, ‘the deal raised eyebrows for its high risk and potentially low returns,’ reported the New York Times. Sure, the Chinese would like to find some natural gas. But most experts say that if Sinopec had to justify this transaction purely on commercial terms, as would an American company, the deal never would have been consummated."

This quotation originates from an in interesting article in The Weekly Standard by Irwin M. Stelzer entitled ‘The Axis of Oil’ (02/07/2005, Volume 010, Issue 20) about the way ‘China and Russia find a new way to advance their strategic ambitions’. Stelzer emphasizes, among other things, the way in which Chinese government undertakings enter in competition with private companies. The complete article is published online too.

china, gas, irwin m. stelzer, oil, russia, saudi arabia, sinopec

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